The Influence of the Running Order

Its only when you listen to the two semi final songs that you get a real sense of how the results could roll out.

In semi 1 there is an explosive start with Poland and that could mean problems for Norway, Albina and Serbia. Armenia will get through based on migrant voting patterns. Georgia then stand out in the next bunch of seven songs and the rock number should go through leaving the Swiss, Finns, San Marino and Iceland battling for the softer song votes. Im not so sure that Malta and Croatia will come out well. The final 5 songs have 3 strong contenders to qualify in Hungary, Azeribjan and Greece ( the latter on voting pattern not the song) leaving Portugal and Lithuenia to struggle (and with poor songs that will be no surprise). In essense there are really only 3 places up for grabs

In semi 2 its very different - with a very slow start to the semi Bosnia stands out the most and this could suit Moldva with their ska rock number. Sweden if performed well will stand out before the five very different mixes. The final 6 songs in this semi could all be potential qualifiers and its likely that the final result will be in favour of five of those latter songs, I fear in all this Austria, Netherlands and Slovakia could be the big losers. With Sweden, Estonia, Ukraine, Denmark almost certain to qualify that leaves 6 places up for grabs

But then I could be totally wrong - again lol