Computer and Personal Predictions

If you recall my blog post from last year (see “Computer analysis”), I ran the finalists through my work's computer software to see if it could predict last years winner. To refresh your memory, here were the results (number in the bracket is the actual placing):

12 points to Portugal (18th)
11 points to Germany (1st)
10 points to Spain (15th)
9 points to France (12th)
8 points to Azerbaijan (5th)
7 points to Serbia (13th)
6 points to Belarus (24th)
5 points to Bosnia & Herzegovina (17th)
4 points to Moldova (22nd)
3 points to Norway (20th)
2 points to Turkey (2nd)
1 point to Belgium (6th)

Not as impressive as I would have hoped for, but it did put Lena at the top, so I figured it couldn't hurt to give it another go this year to see if it fares any better.

So, here are the program's predictions for this year:

12 points to Bosnia & Herzegovina
11 points to Hungary
10 points to Sweden
9 points to Romainia
8 points to Georgia
7 points to Poland
6 points to Belarus
5 points to Slovenia
4 points to Albania
3 points to Croatia
2 points to Serbia
1 point to Spain

If nothing else, I'm predicting these will, at least, make it to the final.

Now, on a personal level - after all, Eurovision isn't about computer software, it's about personal predictions:

I have to say, I'm rather disappointed with Lena's “Taken by a Stranger”. You already know my thoughts about Lena participating this year, but the least she could have done was pick a decent song. It's like she's not even trying!

Dana International: While I applaud her for making a comeback, I think she could have chosen a better song. “Ding dong” sounds like it belongs back in the late 90's – which is when she originally won. Move on Dana, change with the times.

Portugal took a step backward this year, as well. Last year's was cute and had me bopping along, this years has me reaching for the skip button.

Sweden's narcissistic attempt simply just fails in my view. There's nothing outstanding nor original about it. In fact, the more I listen to it, the more I hate it.

Also, just a comment to all those countries who chose to sing in English; find yourself a songwriter who is fluent in the language. Over the years I've noticed way too many half decent songs ruined by what I call “dictionary lyrics”, meaning it sounds like they've hunted through the dictionary to find words that rhyme without regard to the meaning or semantics of the word. I STRONLY believe that you'll win more votes singing in your native language that you will bastardising English.

Now for some positives:

I'm finding myself drawn to those camp little Irish lads, Jedward. I hated the song at first (and their hair! WTF?), but it's grown on me now...the song, not the hair. I find myself bopping away to it every time it swings by on my playlist.

The UK entry this year is also surprisingly good – and a VAST improvement from the last two years. I think I'll even go so far as to say they might actually be in for a chance this year.

Armenia has a funky little number that is an absolute pleasure to listen to, and Lithuania! I don't know if it's my genetic gayness, but the song has a show-tunes sound and no fag can resist a good show-tune! Malta gets my toes a-tappin', and I'm so glad San Marino entered this year. They were going to enter last year but backed out at the last minute, but what a fantastic song they have chosen this year? It is the epitome of sweet with a little rock bite.

Slovakia is another surprise for me, this song should be in the international charts! It has all the elements of a hit.

All in all, I think this years talent is a vast improvement from years gone by, but my all time favourite this year HAS to be Belgium's “With Love”. What's not to love about this little gem? Not a single instrument used, vocals and beatboxing and it just sounds amazing!

I'm really excited by this years turn out. A lot of good acts – some not so good as well. But I think since the new voting system came into being, it's given hope to some of the lesser known countries and I can only hope that the quality improves (although, I hope the likes of Lordi and Verka Serduschka are not scared away)

Now, if you're at all curious as to how each song scored according to my work's software, here are the results in full:

Bosnia & Herzegovina - 97%
Hungary - 94.5%
Sweden – 93.8%
Romainia – 93.5%
Georgia – 92.7%
Poland – 92.3%
Belarus – 92%
Slovenia – 91.6%
Albania – 91.4%
Croatia – 91.1%
Serbia – 90.7%
Spain – 90.6%
Cyprus – 90.4%
Norway – 89.9
Greece – 89.8%
Malta – 89.7%
Russia – 89.6%
Israel – 89.3%
Turkey – 89%
UK – 88.7%
Finland – 87.1%
Netherlands – 86.9%
Macedonia – 86.5%
Switzerland – 85.9%
France – 85.9%
Iceland – 85.4%
Belgium – 84.0%
San Marino – 83.9%
Latvia – 81.9%
Ireland – 81.8%
France – 81.7%
Italy – 81.5%
Estonia – 81.2%
Azerbaijan – 80.6%
Armenia - 80.5 %
Moldova – 80.3%
Slovakia – 79.3%
Latvia – 78.6%
Ukraine – 76.7%
Sweden – 75.8%
Germany – 75.1%
Bulgaria – 72.5%
Lithuania - 71.3 %
Denmark – 71.3%
Portugal – 71.1%
Estonia – 70.7%

If I've missed any, let me know and I'll fill in the gaps.

Cheers
Brad